cienciatk   Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
  Buscador de contenidos      Búsqueda Avanzada >>
  RSS

Bullet  ¿Qué es Cienciatk?

linea separacion

  FONDO DOCUMENTAL
Bullet  Documentos por categorías
Bullet  Documentos por colección
Bullet  Novedades


linea separacion

  ATENCIÓN AL USUARIO
Bullet  Preguntas frecuentes
Bullet  Aportación de fondos
Bullet  Contacto


linea separacion
Acceso a usuarios
    E V E N T O
        Combining knowledge on physiological thresholds and species distribution models to predict species distributions under global warming: a case study with foundational macroalgae
R E T R A N S M I S I Ó N
Video

Próximamente >>
Todas los vídeos están asociadas a sus respectivos derechos de autor.

Duración: 01:00 hs.

Seminarios de investigación MNCN-CSIC
 
Viernes 24 de enero de 2014 a las 12h,
Salón de Actos del Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC

 

 

Título: Combining knowledge on physiological thresholds and species distribution models to predict species distributions under global warming: a case study with foundational macroalgae

 

 

Ponente: Brezo Martínez de la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid

 

 

Resumen:

Species distribution models (SDM) are a useful tool for predicting species range shifts in response to global warming. However, they do not explore the mechanisms underlying biological processes, making it difficult to predict shifts outside the environmental gradient where the model was trained. In this study, we combine SDMs and knowledge on physiological limits. The thermal thresholds obtained in growth and survival experiments were used as proxies of the fundamental niches of two foundational marine macrophytes. The geographic projections of these species’ distributions obtained using these thresholds and published SDMs were similar in areas where the species is either absent-rare or dominant, where fundamental and realized niches match, reaching robust predictions. The cold-temperate foundational seaweed Himanthalia elongata was predicted to become extinct at its southern limit in northern Spain in response to global warming, whereas we expect an increase in occupancy of the southern-lusitanic Bifurcaria bifurcata. Combined approaches such as this one may also highlight geographic areas where models disagree potentially due to biotic factors. Physiological thresholds alone tended to over-predict species prevalence, as they cannot identify absences in climatic conditions within the range of physiological tolerance of the species nor at the optima. Although SDMs tended to have higher sensitivity than threshold models, they may include regressions that do not reflect causal mechanisms, constraining their predictive power. We present a simple example of how combining correlative and mechanistic knowledge provides a rapid way to gain insight into a species’ niche resulting in consistent predictions and highlighting potential sources of uncertainty in forecasted responses to climate change.

 

 

Nota: Instalación de QuickTime necesaria para la reproducción de este vídeo streaming.

Note: Please install quicktime if you can't see video streaming.

Resolución mínima: 1024 x 768 Navegadores: Firefox 3.5.1/Internet Explorer 7.0
Todas las imágenes, vídeos y audios están protegidas por sus respectivos derechos de autor
Logos